According to projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), global growth will remain constant at 3.2% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025. The most recent World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update Report for July 2024, which was made public on Tuesday, supports this. However, the prognosis for Nigeria and other sub-Saharan African nations was revised downward.
According to the report, the growth prediction for sub-Saharan Africa was lowered downward, with the main reason being that “the growth outlook in Nigeria was revised downward by 0.2 percentage points amid weaker than expected activity in the first quarter of 2023.”
The IMF predicted that although worldwide inflation would continue to fall, it would do so more slowly and would remain greater in emerging markets and developing economies than in developed ones.
It stated, “However, for the median emerging market and developing economy, inflation is already close to pre-pandemic levels, partly thanks to falling energy prices.”
As in the April 2024 WEO, the study stated that overall risks to the outlook were still balanced, but certain near-term threats had become more prominent.
Even while the prediction matched the April 2024 WEO, the report noted that there had been significant subsurface changes since the April WEO.
It stated that over the upcoming quarters, growth in advanced economies was predicted to converge. For instance, the anticipated growth rate for the United States in 2024 was lowered to 2.6%.
The slower-than-expected start to the year is reflected in this, which is 0.1 percentage points less than what was predicted in April. According to the IMF research, growth is predicted to drop to 1.9% in 2025 as the labor market cools and consumption declines and fiscal policy begins to gradually tighten.
After an almost flat performance in 2023, it was stated that a minor pickup of 0.9% was anticipated for the Euro area in 2024, “driven by stronger momentum in services and higher-than-expected net exports in the first half of the year.”
The IMF reported that the growth estimate for emerging markets and developing economies was revised upward, driven by stronger activity in Asia, especially China and India.
The growth estimate for China in 2024 has been raised higher to 5%, mostly due to a pickup in domestic consumption and robust exports in the first quarter. The IMF stated that the growth estimate for India has also been updated, coming in at 7.0% for this year.
According to the report, growth in Brazil and Mexico for 2024 has been revised down due to the near-term impact of flooding and demand moderation, respectively, for Latin America and the Caribbean.
“But growth has been revised upwards for Brazil in 2025 to reflect structural factors that support growth, like an acceleration in hydrocarbon production, and reconstruction after the floods,” the statement stated.
The IMF also stated that prospects for the Middle East and Central Asia were clouded by oil production and regional tensions. It revealed that Saudi Arabia’s growth estimate for 2024 had been revised down by 0.9 percentage points; the continuation of oil production cuts is the primary cause of the adjustment.
