Russia watchers have known President Vladimir Putin was going to North Korea for months.
Following the tour of Russia’s Far East by Kim Jong Un’s large green bulletproof train last year, the North Korean leader extended an invitation to Mr. Putin to pay him a visit. That was a polite invitation, accepted.
But it appears that this eagerly anticipated visit will happen in a few days: According to South Korean authorities, it might happen as soon as Tuesday. North Korean preparations appear to be underway, as seen by satellite photos.
There’s no denying that it has reporters from Russia and other countries scurrying for any sign of breaking news.
Though anticipation is now at an all-time high, the Kremlin maintains that those facts will be revealed eventually.
But why is it relevant right now?
First of all, considering that this would only be Mr. Putin’s second visit to North Korea—the first occurring in 2000, at the beginning of his presidential career, while Mr. Kim’s father, Kim Jong Il, was still the country’s supreme leader—there is understandable intrigue.
Beyond that, however, the West is concerned since this is a relationship that has evolved from mutual niceties to mutual benefits (although not to the extent experienced during the Soviet Union).
Although the Kremlin stated that this shouldn’t worry anyone, it advised those considering challenging the developing ties to reconsider, as there is potential for “very deep relations” between Russia and North Korea.
Much conjecture has been raised on the precise desires of the two parties towards each other. And it appears that supply security is the key.
Vladimir Markov, a political analyst and Putin supporter, believes that Russia is probably looking for volunteers, construction laborers, and munitions to send to the front lines in Ukraine.
Mr. Markov responds that Pyongyang might receive Russian product in exchange for technological support for military objectives, such as its long-range missile development, which would eventually put it within striking distance of the US.
Without a question, Russia needs to fuel its conflict in Ukraine.
According to a recent Bloomberg article that referenced South Korea’s defense ministry, North Korea may have sent Russia close to five million artillery shells.
One of Russia’s main selling points is that it can cooperate with a partner who, like it or not, despises the West and sanctions.
Ultimately, the two most sanctioned nations in the world are North Korea and Russia; the latter is due to North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons and succession of ballistic missile launches.
Moscow delivered a severe blow to Pyongyang’s sanctions earlier this year when it vetoed a resolution from the UN Security Council to prolong the committee in charge of enforcing them.
And between the two leaders, there might even be a genuine friendship—albeit a guarded, businesslike one. In defiance of UN sanctions, Mr. Putin gave Mr. Kim an opulent Russian limousine in February.
Kim recently wrote to President Putin describing North Korea and Russia as a “invincible comrade-in-arms.”
However, it might just be business and a dearth of other choices.
To put it plainly, North Korea believes Moscow needs allies and is now worth more to an isolated Russia.
Mr. Putin may simply show his critics that he can and will do as he pleases by traveling to North Korea.
discover a way around the restrictions imposed by the West on his nation? Right now, he can, indeed.
Persuade people to sell Russia arms and break sanctions? It seems that way.
establish new diplomatic ties with nations all around the world while carrying out his purported “special military operation”? He is undoubtedly making an effort.
President Putin has promoted the notion that the West is losing its hegemony ever since he sent soldiers into neighboring Ukraine, and he has courted people who share or are at least receptive to that viewpoint.
It is no coincidence that one of Mr. Putin’s main guests at a recent economic event in St. Petersburg was the president of Zimbabwe, a nation that has also faced the severe effects of sanctions.
Furthermore, Russia has been doing all in its power to demonstrate that it has many allies who share its values throughout the globe. Anyone who is fed up with the US-led world order, whether they are from Asia, Latin America, or Africa, is welcome.
Indeed, President Putin’s catchphrases flew out of his address when Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa reached the podium, contrasting a new “multipolar world” with a haughty West determined to maintain its “global hegemony” at all costs.
Additionally, Mr. Putin has been courting deeper connections with Iran, another nation beleaguered by sanctions and eager to sell its military hardware—drones, in Tehran’s case. Better still, if it shook the West.
President Putin is aware that the pictures he takes on his journey to Pyongyang will enthrall the world and demonstrate his willingness to conduct business and engage in politics with whichever partners he chooses.
A red line will have been drawn when Presidents Putin and Xi met during the Russian leader’s first foreign trip of his fifth term in office, which was itself replete with symbolism about Russia’s declared shift to the East, even though China will have its own concerns about Russia’s rapprochement with North Korea.
Russia is one of the few nations that does strongman ceremonies with such ostentation, but North Korea can definitely compete with them. Furthermore, it appears that the leadership divide between the two nations is closing due to Russia’s move away from traditional democracy.
Of all, considering their cultural and historical ties to Europe and the West, average Russians do not always embrace their nation’s growing proximity to North Korea.
And this is one possible risk that Mr. Putin will have to deal with, along with any additional actions that Western countries may take following their meeting of the two strongmen.
In the end, it’s highly unlikely that we will learn what was agreed upon; during Kim Jong Un’s visit to Russia last year, we certainly didn’t.
However, with impenetrable messaging and optics, the scene will be prepared for a defiant Putin to march out in the most remote nation on earth and proclaim, “Yes, I can—watch me.”
